Thursday, May 15, 2014

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

  • Once an experienced analyst has the minimum information necessary to make an informed judgment, obtaining additional information generally does not improve the accuracy of his or her estimates. Additional information does, however, lead the analyst to become more confident in the judgment, to the point of overconfidence.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/psych-intel/art8.html

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